Stock Market Today News – Market Watch

According to a study by the Bank of Montreal, available since March 28, up 2% interest rates “… affect the ability to pay” 20% of borrowers who responded to this survey, or “let them in uncertainty “, reported 23% of respondents. This data comes from an article by The Associated Press appeared in the pages of Nouvelliste (Thursday, March 29, 2012, p.24).

What is particularly simple fact is that I just read an article in Les Affaires, this week, where the author notes the difficulty of the reader to correctly analyze the statistics that are presented on all sides continually. So, I came across this article with the title “Most owners would resist an increase in interest rates.” We are talking about the remaining 57%, what remains, I think, a very slim majority. It would in any case certainly the opinion of the father of the law on “Clarity”, Stephane Dion.

At first glance, no mention in this article on the methodology used, questions asked, including the dates for its completion and especially the number of respondents. Nothing to help us see things a little clearer. Same thing on the website of the Bank of Montreal (at least I have not found).

Then the conclusions are rather general. What exactly does the term “affect the ability to pay”? One might think that for some this would require a slight reworking of the budget, to cut a little in another expense item while for others, always within 20% of the respondents, it could mean a delay squarely Payment? But how much?

In the same vein, 23% of respondents who selected the response “would leave me in uncertainty” actually mean “… not sure what the effect of rising interest rates would have on them. “. Does this mean that people do not know exactly the state of their personal finances and then consider difficult to estimate the financial impact would have a higher interest rate. Unless either the easy answer, any designated, to get rid of the pollster who called on the dinner hour while the youngest is in the midst of the “terrible twos”?

What seems more certain is that:

1 – The rate will begin to rise, it’s only a matter of months.

2 – This recovery will be gradual

3 – At every rise, people will see the change up as a reminder to choose a fixed rate, if necessary

4 – Very few people in my opinion, and it is rather normal, have a clear idea of ​​the additional amount that would represent the amount of their mortgage payment, up to terms of 2% interest rate

5 – Considering the point 4, how to achieve a reliable and valid study?

The theme is still interesting but I feel that we should wait to really know the conclusions about the real impact of a specific and potentially higher mortgage interest rates.

The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, faces a dilemma. He said the high level of indebtedness of Canadian households is the main internal threat to the Canadian economy but, in the same breath, he feared to harm the recovery if it increases interest rates to slow borrowing .

During an interview with The Canadian Press, M.Carney said he was ready to intervene if the situation became out of control. “In exceptional circumstances, if household debt threatens the country’s financial stability, for example, the Bank of Canada can then use monetary policy to restore the situation.”

An agreement with the federal government last year, would allow him to intervene in this direction.

But Carney does not believe that even after the pot. He is encouraged by the recent slowdown in the housing market. The ratio between debt and disposable income rose to nearly 150 percent at the end of last year. The experts of the Bank of Canada predict that this proportion will increase to 160 percent, the figure reached in the United States before the 2008 crisis, by the end of the year.

“We have never been individually as indebted as we are today, said Mr. Carney. Our analyzes show that about 10 percent of Canadians are vulnerable if interest rates return to normal, and interest rates will return to normal. ”

Canadians continue to borrow or remortgage their homes because their revenue growth has slowed down if it falls below the inflation rate.

Canadians do not believe they are heavily indebted, in part because of the persistence of very low interest rates. In addition, private sector experts reiterate that the Bank of Canada will not increase its rates this year despite warnings from Mr. Carney.

Such concerns about the governor. If interest rates start to climb – and it will happen one day – along with a decline in home prices, this situation could explode in the face of Canadian consumers. The value of the assets of the owners fall, the debt burden will increase as the income growth will remain modest.

If interest rates rise, experts fear that households cut their spending. Accordingly, it would reduce economic activity in the country.

Mr. Carney said he had spoken directly to banks to tighten their lending policies.

He clearly indicated that a rise in interest rates aimed only at stabilizing the housing market will only be considered if there is a threat to financial stability, and then only as a footnote.

The last trading day of the week is the last opportunity to prevent the North American indexes to record one of their worst week this year.

In the morning, there will be statistics on new home sales in the U.S. and an update of the index of consumer prices in Canada.

In the afternoon, Ben Bernanke will deliver the opening address of a Fed conference in Washington that examines the financial crisis.

China – with 1.3 billion mouths to feed – will soon be the world’s largest importer of food. Quebec, including the agri-food exports to China jumped 300% in three years, should take the opportunity to achieve growth. But there are many pitfalls before making his fortune in the Middle Kingdom, noted La Presse.

“China is no longer the country that produces as the world consumes, launches boldly Michael Zhu, president of Ja-e supermarket in Shanghai. China will become the largest consumer in the world. ”

Having made a fortune by exporting garden furniture manufactured in factories in his country, Mr. Zhu wants to take advantage of the new appetite for his fellow citizens. The businessman imports of food and goods from around the world, China. “We want the volume, the volume and volume, says he came to Canadian entrepreneurs to meet, on a beautiful November morning. The middle class in China will soon have more people than the U.S. population as a whole. ”

Second largest economy in the world, China is the most populous country with 1.3 billion mouths to feed daily. “Only in Shanghai, there are 23 million people, said Henry Deng, Trade Commissioner Canadian Consulate General in Shanghai, in a bus that crosses the economic capital of China. We have a great opportunity, that of their Canadian food supply. ”

Already, Canada’s agri-food exports to China reached $ 2.7 billion in 2010. This is four times more than four years ago. But it is a tiny portion (4.18%) of all food imports from China, wants to see Ottawa grow. “As a North American country, Canada could become a major supplier of food products from China,” said Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada in a study published in July.

Quebec wants its share of the pie. “The agri-food sector in China is the subject of priorities for us,” said Daniel Dignard, Director of the Quebec office in Beijing. By far the province, with just $ 112 million of food products were shipped home in China in 2010. But again, the increase is impressive: 300% in three years.

Increased interest in Quebec

Already, “Quebec’s agri-food exports reached 150 to 200 million for the first 10 months of 2011, said Dignard. For Quebec companies, China is becoming a must. They must be there now. This market is growing rapidly. We feel we are living a historic moment. ”

“There has been much interest in China when it was to open, said Stephane Legros, coordinator of external markets in Québec Food Processing (TRANSAQ). Then the sector has cooled a bit, noting that the legislation, culture and business networks were not necessarily developed at the time. We feel a resurgence of interest in recent months, maybe a year and a half. ”

Filled with New Zealand milk, biscuits and jams American French, chic supermarkets in Shanghai and Beijing allow to see that others have been faster. “Unquestionably, it is time for our food companies in Canada and Quebec to think how to exploit the Chinese market, observes Zhan Su, Chair Stephen A. Jarislowsky in International Business Management from Laval University. Over the last 10 years, the production value of the food industry in China has experienced a growth rate of over 20% per year. But the needs are still enormous, and this, especially for Western products. ”

Duo Li, Professor, Department of Food Science and Nutrition of the renowned University of Zhejiang, is not convinced. “China is self-sufficient, he assures. We can feed 1.4 billion people without any problems. “First of all to cultivate good relations with other countries that China imports of food commodities, he said.

The Chinese want to take advantage of our resources

Big advantage in our food: it is not mere food. This is the “Western Food”, popular in Chinese cities, where the Kentucky Fried Chicken and Pizza Hut are omnipresent. “The middle class is becoming richer and has an appetite for Western products, confirms Nicolas Moisan, export adviser Food Export Group Quebec-Canada, which recently conducted a Quebec delegation in China. Especially there have been several scandals involving Chinese food, as more and more people do not want to eat. All this opens many doors. ”

“I like foreign food because it is less polluted, told La Presse Qing Fang Zhu, Retired met at the food court FHC China in Shanghai. I more or less confidence in Chinese food. ”

Access to good food is a right, realize more and more Chinese. “Canada has a lot of resources, said Wang Yuzhou, president of Zhejiang Newland Foods Co, a leading exporter and importer of food in Hangzhou, a city of 8 million inhabitants. People in China must also be able to enjoy it. “

It was some time that the regional conference of elected officers (CRE) in the Eastern Townships thought this information day. The news pushed to accelerate the process. The preliminary work of Bowmore, near the village of Saint-Camille, have attracted the attention of the Eastern Townships in the interest of exploration companies for mineral potential of the basement. Then, obtaining mining rights on the territories of the rural village of North Hatley has caused concern.

“People have turned to us for us to take position, so that we we document further explains the executive director of the CRE, Marie-Helene Wolfe. They told us that he had to do something. ”

“But between the prejudices, fears and the desire to find a significant windfall, you have to upgrade information for those who have to make a decision may do so knowingly,” says Wolfe .

CRE invite to that meeting information experts or independent investigators. “We do not want to receive the promoters or lobby groups, says Ms. Wolfe. We want to be as objective as possible. ”

A document prepared

The CRE was already interested in the mining sector before the race for mining in the region. In early 2010, she had prepared a document a hundred pages on the Eastern Townships mining issues in the context of the establishment of a regional plan for development of natural resources. The plan, released in February 2011, did not recognize the mining sector as a priority, but still included “the establishment of a regional mechanism for consultation and information for planning and carrying out exploration work Mining in the Eastern Townships. ”

It is a fact forgotten, but the Eastern Townships has been the scene of intense mining activity in the first half of the century. The region was the birthplace of copper mining in the country. In addition to twenty active quarries, only the operation of asbestos are still scrapes.